Strategic Estimate

Produce a Point Paper for the EUCOM Commander to use in congressional testimony.
As a member of a national Joint Planning Group (JPG) of the U.S. European Command (EUCOM J5), your JPG has completed an update of the Strategic Estimate (Source 1) for the Baltic Region to get the Commander up to speed on the situation in the region regarding Kaliningrad and provide the basis for a commander’s estimate, and if necessary, development of plans. Following the successful briefing of the Strategic Estimate (where it was approved), the Combatant Commander learned that he would have to travel to Washington to join the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff at congressional hearings on the situation in the Baltic region regarding Kaliningrad. You have been tasked to prepare a Point Paper for the Combatant Commander to use in testimony before congressional committees and in meetings in Washington regarding Kaliningrad. The intent is to provide analysis of the Strategic Estimate regarding Kaliningrad.

a. A two-page Background/Discussion; and
b. One-page Conclusion and Recommendations.

1. BACKGROUND/DISCUSSION. Include the heading above with your name. The paper will not exceed three pages. The focus is Kaliningrad and is designed to provide maximum information in a manner that is easily absorbed. The format is appropriate for use whenever the need for presenting summarized information arises. You will use no more than two pages to summarize the Strategic Estimate that you were provided. This is a narrative summary, not a cut and paste. Within this paper, you must include key points from each section of the Strategic Estimate: Introduction, Strategic Environment, Strategic Direction, Strategic and Operational Challenges, Potential Opportunities, and Assessment of Risks. Use complete, concise sentences and cover sub-points clearly and concisely. Use the headings below to delineate each section of the paper. Cite your source.

a. Introduction (including key topic and thesis)
b. Strategic Environment
c. Strategic Direction
d. Strategic and Operational Challenges
e. Potential Opportunities (Explain each option from the Strategic Estimate using Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic areas)
Option 1: Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic
Option 2: Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic
Option 3: Diplomatic, Information, Military, Economic
f. Assessment of Risks & Mitigation (from the Strategic Estimate)

2. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS. You will use no more than one page for your Conclusion and Recommendation.

a. Recommendation. This sub-paragraph is the opportunity for the Action Officer (you) to apply your judgment, weigh the alternatives, and recommend one of the options presented in the approved Strategic Estimate – Up Front (BLUF).

b. Validity assessment. A short paragraph covering the validity assessment of the recommendation and any issues the other two options may have had because of validity. Ensure you address the Validity criteria of Feasible, Acceptable, Suitable, and Complete.

c. Risks and mitigation. Identify potential risks and mitigation for your recommendation using the Ends-Ways-Means-Risk construct.

d. Justification. Ensure you justify your recommendation by explaining why it is superior in comparison to the other possible options. Use the Evaluation Criteria derived from the Strategic Direction found on the last slide. You may use the decision matrix slide as a tool to help you determine the superior option. If you include the chart / matrix, ensure you explain what it means.

e. Conclusion. A conclusion restates the thesis and argues why the author’s position is correct without adding new information.