Project Management -Program Report

Commercial analysis and sales forecast
In fully integrated corporations, commercial
analyses and sales forecasts are usually
provided by (strategic) marketing.
Representatives of the portfolio management
function sometimes generate sales forecasts
for projects that have not yet passed PoC or
that are of low priority. In such cases, it is
advisable to seek alignment of the key
assumptions with marketing to ensure their
buy-in.
Assuming contemporary forecasting
capabilities (see below), the major issue of
value-driven management is the proper
alignment of commercial expectations with
the planned R & D activities and clinical trials.
Furthermore, project managers and decision
makers benefi t from investigations how
product sales may change if uncertain trial
outcomes move to the optimistic or
pessimistic direction, related to the likelihood
of the respective scenarios. As outlined above,
the TPP / MPP is a valuable tool to facilitate
the establishment of trustworthy forecasts and
expected sales scenarios.
As a consequence of the translational
medicine approach, more and more
companies choose an organisational model
that separates research and early development
until POC from full development. As a
consequence this leads also to a split of the
portfolio management function. In such cases
there is a tendency of initiating quantitative
fi nancial project evaluation only after PoC.
This is different from portfolio management
practice in the 1990s, when a development
project was nominated with the start of
preclinical development and its fi nancial value
analysed. Signifi cant decisions with respect
to the therapeutic indication and the
development strategy are sometimes already
made before the defi nition of the PoC
programme, as they infl uence its objectives